Who's betting on “Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?”?
Finance · $844K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $844K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
76% of the money on Yes and 46% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 24 points. A week ago, Yes by 21 points.
692 wallets hold a position worth $14K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 692 of them. The largest Yes holder is BMM-1, with $1.3K on it, $37K lifetime profit over 20 markets (95% won). The largest No holder is alphainvestor, with $2.5K on it, $318 lifetime loss over 75 markets (44% won).
- Smart money share
- 76%
- Holders
- 494
- Money on it
- $5.4K
- Holders' winrate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 46% ▼ 7 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 198
- Money on it
- $8.5K
- Holders' winrate
- 68%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMM-1balanced | $1.3K | +$37K | 95% of 20 |
| 0x42f01b7c5c20570Db68E0127675B3f5D2aF6fc65-1768338366856balanced | $643 | +$9.8K | 59% of 27 |
| SteveTheFishwhale | $526 | +$25K | 67% of 110 |
| TomFung | $257 | -$11K | 19% of 201 |
| deah12whale | $150 | +$18K | 75% of 36 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| alphainvestor | $2.5K | -$318 | 44% of 75 |
| leo-2020grinder | $2.2K | +$224 | 91% of 57 |
| 0xd5e3226B2D399B64063c3659ac93a670cbb6e379-1774853682065 | $502 | -$1.0K | 96% of 224 |
| InnovationEdunoise | $493 | +$6.4K | 38% of 200 |
| Tharayman | $197 | +$99 | 100% of 2 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Largest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA$1.5M vol.Yes 59%No 42%Smart money: Yes
- Apple$1.3M vol.Yes 39%No 61%Smart money: Yes
- Microsoft$1.1M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Saudi Aramco$1.1M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Tesla$1.1M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Amazon$1.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- SpaceX$1.0M vol.Yes 1%No 100%Smart money: No
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.1M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?
692 wallets hold a position worth $14K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 692 of them. The largest Yes holder is BMM-1, with $1.3K on it, $37K lifetime profit over 20 markets (95% won). The largest No holder is alphainvestor, with $2.5K on it, $318 lifetime loss over 75 markets (44% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $844K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
76% of the money on Yes and 46% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 24 points. A week ago, Yes by 21 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.