Who's betting on “Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 96% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 45 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $61K traded all time
- Held now
- $17K by 64 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 96% 30 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 50% 34 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 36¢ and No at 65¢, a 65% implied chance of No. $61K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2029.
The smart money
96% of the money on Yes and 50% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 45 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 45 points. A week ago, Yes by 45 points.
Who holds it
64 wallets hold a position worth $17K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 64 of them. The largest Yes holder is wqujvj, with $1.4K on it, $9.8K lifetime profit over 93 markets (75% won). The largest No holder is 0x41E816EC8eb178804fF4B3f523d0b01c4729626b-1769306850569, with $3.8K on it, $2.2K lifetime loss over 51 markets (57% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $277 on No.
- Holders
- 30
- Money on it
- $5.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 62%
- Holders
- 34
- Money on it
- $11K
- Holders' win rate
- 61%
- Snipers
- 1 · $277
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$5.9K on it
- 1wqujvj75% won of 93 · balanced$1.4K+$9.8K lifetime
- 2fafafaffafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafa57% won of 201 · whale$1.2K+$28K lifetime
- 3Hakei.71% won of 1,028 · whale$1.1K+$91K lifetime
- 4DualDelta34% won of 208 · noise$293+$41K lifetime
- 5PaddyAlpha69% won of 402 · whale$278+$56K lifetime
No$11K on it
- 10x41E816EC8eb178804fF4B3f523d0b01c4729626b-176930685056957% won of 51$3.8K−$2.2K lifetime
- 20x834191a479261b32e522b738520b8d53a315de845% won of 254 · noise$1.9K+$27K lifetime
- 3yen4u94% won of 1,413 · whale$1.1K+$81K lifetime
- 4DerDon56% won of 1,234 · whale$1.0K+$95K lifetime
- 5il167% won of 352$645−$7.7K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?
2 more- December 31, 2026$294K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- December 31, 2027$91K vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money split
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?"?
64 wallets hold a position worth $17K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 64 of them. The largest Yes holder is wqujvj, with $1.4K on it, $9.8K lifetime profit over 93 markets (75% won). The largest No holder is 0x41E816EC8eb178804fF4B3f523d0b01c4729626b-1769306850569, with $3.8K on it, $2.2K lifetime loss over 51 markets (57% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 36¢ and No at 65¢, a 65% implied chance of No. $61K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2029.
Which side is the smart money on?
96% of the money on Yes and 50% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 45 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 45 points. A week ago, Yes by 45 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2029. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.