Who's betting on “Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $91K traded all time
- Held now
- $29K by 82 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 97% 36 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 94% 46 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 16¢ and No at 85¢, an 85% implied chance of No. $91K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
The smart money
97% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
82 wallets hold a position worth $29K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 82 of them. The largest Yes holder is DualDelta, with $1.8K on it, $41K lifetime profit over 208 markets (34% won). The largest No holder is yen4u, with $9.6K on it, $81K lifetime profit over 1,413 markets (94% won).
Sharp money
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $537 on No.
- Holders
- 36
- Money on it
- $4.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
- Holders
- 46
- Money on it
- $24K
- Holders' win rate
- 75%
- Snipers
- 2 · $537
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$4.4K on it
- 1DualDelta34% won of 208 · noise$1.8K+$41K lifetime
- 20x652bFf901f401Fdhsk342kdjfnfk029abks1374% won of 303 · balanced$655+$11K lifetime
- 3wqujvj75% won of 93 · balanced$524+$9.8K lifetime
- 4HedgeShark74% won of 23 · balanced$372+$7.1K lifetime
- 5PaddyAlpha69% won of 401 · whale$351+$56K lifetime
No$24K on it
- 1yen4u94% won of 1,413 · whale$9.6K+$81K lifetime
- 2whig59% won of 1,153 · whale$5.1K+$312K lifetime
- 338741100741561181409221789738777% won of 1,806 · whale$2.3K+$102K lifetime
- 40x834191a479261b32e522b738520b8d53a315de845% won of 254 · noise$2.2K+$27K lifetime
- 5h03859602735584% won of 269 · whale$962+$16K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?
2 more- December 31, 2026$294K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- December 31, 2028$61K vol.Yes 36%No 65%Smart money: Yes
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?"?
82 wallets hold a position worth $29K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 82 of them. The largest Yes holder is DualDelta, with $1.8K on it, $41K lifetime profit over 208 markets (34% won). The largest No holder is yen4u, with $9.6K on it, $81K lifetime profit over 1,413 markets (94% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 16¢ and No at 85¢, an 85% implied chance of No. $91K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
97% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.