Who's betting on “Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 81% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 16 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $107K traded all time
- Held now
- $2.7K by 108 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 65% 66 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 81% 41 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $107K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
65% of the money on Yes and 81% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 16 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 15 points. A week ago, No by 19 points.
Who holds it
108 wallets hold a position worth $2.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 107 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x9dd9…08bd, with $23 on it, $36K lifetime profit over 740 markets (16% won). The largest No holder is JeffreyCalhoun1112, with $559 on it, $4.1K lifetime profit over 200 markets (56% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $119 on No.
- Holders
- 67
- Money on it
- $209
- Holders' win rate
- 48%
- Holders
- 41
- Money on it
- $2.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 61%
- Snipers
- 1 · $119
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$209 on it
- 10x9dd9…08bd16% won of 740 · noise$23+$36K lifetime
- 2xlefgerx84% won of 132 · whale$20+$4.8K lifetime
- 342m33% won of 12$18−$8 lifetime
- 4JenniferJones819347% won of 200 · noise$16+$1.0K lifetime
- 5LornaPredicts28% won of 15,967 · noise$12+$28K lifetime
No$2.5K on it
- 1JeffreyCalhoun111256% won of 200 · balanced$559+$4.1K lifetime
- 2BetterFish61% won of 740 · whale$290+$35K lifetime
- 3PatrickMoore440951% won of 200 · balanced$290+$2.9K lifetime
- 4Orion9669% won of 674 · whale$227+$37K lifetime
- 5StephanieMcintyre144650% won of 113$180−$762 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
3 more- 160-179$103K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money split
- 180-199$62K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- 140-159$50K vol.Yes 67%No 33%Smart money: No
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?"?
108 wallets hold a position worth $2.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 107 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x9dd9…08bd, with $23 on it, $36K lifetime profit over 740 markets (16% won). The largest No holder is JeffreyCalhoun1112, with $559 on it, $4.1K lifetime profit over 200 markets (56% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $107K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
65% of the money on Yes and 81% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 16 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 15 points. A week ago, No by 19 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.