Who's betting on “Will more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 67% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 13 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $15K traded all time
- Held now
- $204 by 85 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 54% 69 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 67% 16 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
54% of the money on Yes and 67% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 14 points. A week ago, No by 12 points.
Who holds it
85 wallets hold a position worth $204 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 85 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xd163…d100, with $6 on it, $233 lifetime loss over 39 markets (26% won). The largest No holder is 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04, with $90 on it, $146K lifetime profit over 1,009 markets (92% won).
- Holders
- 69
- Money on it
- $24
- Holders' win rate
- 42%
- Holders
- 16
- Money on it
- $181
- Holders' win rate
- 78%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$24 on it
- 10xd163…d10026% won of 39$6−$233 lifetime
- 2LornaPredicts28% won of 15,917 · noise$4+$28K lifetime
- 30xd357FCC58c4fd0956625EbF78522503f0cf2CD28-177591806036738% won of 13$2−$216 lifetime
- 449ddgfd13% won of 239$1−$138 lifetime
- 5crossFiter54% won of 7,777 · balanced$1+$362 lifetime
No$181 on it
- 195074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b0492% won of 1,009 · whale$90+$146K lifetime
- 2Spiderman202645% won of 33$24−$59 lifetime
- 3cigarettes46% won of 49,306$20−$51K lifetime
- 4LuckyJet77798% won of 58$13+$31 lifetime
- 5FlashTradeOracleTester88% won of 251$10−$3.0K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
7 more- 7-8$165K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- 5-6$120K vol.Yes 38%No 62%Smart money: Yes
- <5$105K vol.Yes 54%No 47%Smart money split
- 9-10$66K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- 15-16$32K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- 11-12$11K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 13-14$11K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?"?
85 wallets hold a position worth $204 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 85 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0xd163…d100, with $6 on it, $233 lifetime loss over 39 markets (26% won). The largest No holder is 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04, with $90 on it, $146K lifetime profit over 1,009 markets (92% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
54% of the money on Yes and 67% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 14 points. A week ago, No by 12 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.