Who's betting on “Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?”?
Finance · $438K volume · Ends January 1, 2028 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Anthropic at 95¢ and OpenAI at 5¢, a 95% implied chance of Anthropic. $438K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
71% of the money on Anthropic and 64% of the money on OpenAI is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Anthropic, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned Anthropic, by 7 points. A week ago, Anthropic by 8 points.
487 wallets hold a position worth $102K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 487 of them. The largest Anthropic holder is Paul973973, with $24K on it, $8.2K lifetime profit over 1,269 markets (93% won). The largest OpenAI holder is ImJustKen, with $1.1K on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,065 markets (65% won).
- Smart money share
- 71%
- Holders
- 234
- Money on it
- $97K
- Holders' winrate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 64%
- Holders
- 253
- Money on it
- $5.1K
- Holders' winrate
- 53%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul973973whale | $24K | +$8.2K | 93% of 1,269 |
| GOLADS96 | $7.8K | -$248 | 76% of 55 |
| thebetter1234balanced | $6.4K | +$6.4K | 67% of 97 |
| woodlawncapbalanced | $4.1K | +$11K | 68% of 201 |
| yoyobb2018 | $3.0K | -$1.6K | 78% of 1,033 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| ImJustKenwhale | $1.1K | +$2.3M | 65% of 1,065 |
| 0x225b7c9Aaf6108deD29b9fdA9939aA671Ef6422A-1756591558414whale | $241 | +$22K | 64% of 203 |
| vengo | $156 | -$12K | 24% of 260 |
| Pheyul | $144 | -$1.7K | 68% of 189 |
| wweat | $141 | -$16K | 9% of 225 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?"?
487 wallets hold a position worth $102K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 487 of them. The largest Anthropic holder is Paul973973, with $24K on it, $8.2K lifetime profit over 1,269 markets (93% won). The largest OpenAI holder is ImJustKen, with $1.1K on it, $2.3M lifetime profit over 1,065 markets (65% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?"?
Polymarket prices Anthropic at 95¢ and OpenAI at 5¢, a 95% implied chance of Anthropic. $438K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
71% of the money on Anthropic and 64% of the money on OpenAI is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Anthropic, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned Anthropic, by 7 points. A week ago, Anthropic by 8 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.