Who's betting on “Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?”?
Finance · $317K volume · Ends January 1, 2029 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 18¢ and No at 83¢, an 83% implied chance of No. $317K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2029.
100% of the money on Yes and 96% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 9 points.
93 wallets hold a position worth $180K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 93 of them. The largest Yes holder is dromedaryy, with $25K on it, $450K lifetime profit over 47 markets (66% won). The largest No holder is waterwaterwater, with $84K on it, $5.9K lifetime profit over 2 markets (100% won).
- Smart money share
- 100%
- Holders
- 27
- Money on it
- $32K
- Holders' winrate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 96%
- Holders
- 66
- Money on it
- $149K
- Holders' winrate
- 91%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| dromedaryywhale | $25K | +$450K | 66% of 47 |
| Carwhale | $4.1K | +$1.5M | 58% of 1,670 |
| pup1noise | $1.8K | +$325K | 41% of 1,117 |
| AiBirdwhale | $480 | +$122K | 57% of 1,139 |
| immanuelcanwhale | $218 | +$39K | 78% of 1,010 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| waterwaterwater | $84K | +$5.9K | 100% of 2 |
| Varilwhale | $46K | +$775 | 99% of 207 |
| cryptoincome | $4.1K | -$17K | 91% of 1,007 |
| 0xB16B00B5whale | $2.5K | +$51K | 81% of 314 |
| Lolakiswhale | $2.1K | +$88K | 66% of 1,456 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...?
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?"?
93 wallets hold a position worth $180K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 93 of them. The largest Yes holder is dromedaryy, with $25K on it, $450K lifetime profit over 47 markets (66% won). The largest No holder is waterwaterwater, with $84K on it, $5.9K lifetime profit over 2 markets (100% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 18¢ and No at 83¢, an 83% implied chance of No. $317K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2029.
Which side is the smart money on?
100% of the money on Yes and 96% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 9 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2029. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.