Who's betting on “Will Ariana Grande win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?”?
Smart money leans No: 65% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 63 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $25K traded all time
- Held now
- $12K by 104 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 2% 31 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 65% 73 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 31¢ and No at 70¢, a 70% implied chance of No. $25K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on September 28, 2026.
The smart money
2% of the money on Yes and 65% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 63 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 59 points. A week ago, No by 63 points.
Who holds it
104 wallets hold a position worth $12K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 104 of them. The largest Yes holder is TheImpasse, with $4.7K on it, $142K lifetime loss over 1,280 markets (21% won). The largest No holder is Mantzuraj, with $1.3K on it, $3.6K lifetime loss over 743 markets (56% won).
- Holders
- 31
- Money on it
- $5.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 25%
- Holders
- 73
- Money on it
- $6.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$5.1K on it
- 1TheImpasse21% won of 1,280$4.7K−$142K lifetime
- 2KGFlawless-64% won of 1,058$30−$7.3K lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,246 · noise$19+$255K lifetime
- 40x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-176165628427161% won of 6,283 · whale$15+$64K lifetime
- 5Poligarch58% won of 14,833 · whale$12+$200K lifetime
No$6.8K on it
- 1Mantzuraj56% won of 743$1.3K−$3.6K lifetime
- 2SickandTired70% won of 1,187$866−$2.7K lifetime
- 3cosmicsteaks47% won of 4,326 · whale$671+$8.2K lifetime
- 4grinder101147% won of 519 · whale$644+$11K lifetime
- 5Haradwaith50% won of 54,058$364−$377K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in this event
2 more- Will Madonna win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?$14K vol.Yes 42%No 59%Smart money: Yes
- Taylor Swift$13K vol.Yes 19%No 81%Smart money: No
Other big pop culture markets
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?$67M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22?$2.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Ariana Grande win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?"?
104 wallets hold a position worth $12K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 104 of them. The largest Yes holder is TheImpasse, with $4.7K on it, $142K lifetime loss over 1,280 markets (21% won). The largest No holder is Mantzuraj, with $1.3K on it, $3.6K lifetime loss over 743 markets (56% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Ariana Grande win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 31¢ and No at 70¢, a 70% implied chance of No. $25K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on September 28, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
2% of the money on Yes and 65% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 63 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 59 points. A week ago, No by 63 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on September 28, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.