Who's betting on “US bank failure by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 77% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 63 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $15K traded all time
- Held now
- $1.3K by 36 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 14% 12 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 77% 24 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 72¢ and No at 28¢, a 72% implied chance of Yes. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
14% of the money on Yes and 77% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 63 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 60 points. A week ago, No by 12 points.
Who holds it
36 wallets hold a position worth $1.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 36 of them. The largest Yes holder is spacegliderr, with $739 on it, $78K lifetime loss over 224 markets (29% won). The largest No holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $115 on it, $255K lifetime profit over 123,253 markets (40% won).
- Holders
- 12
- Money on it
- $908
- Holders' win rate
- 36%
- Holders
- 24
- Money on it
- $362
- Holders' win rate
- 56%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$908 on it
- 1spacegliderr29% won of 224$739−$78K lifetime
- 2LehmanBrother2.062% won of 21 · balanced$110+$1.2K lifetime
- 3lissartter56% won of 2,997$14−$287K lifetime
- 40x7c14bDd7D62B9a7824C220EE39a9b58773F05783-177358738019573% won of 1,082$13−$30K lifetime
- 5EdgeHustler81% won of 145 · balanced$8+$123 lifetime
No$362 on it
- 1xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$115+$255K lifetime
- 2RayGuy91% won of 22 · balanced$97+$5.4K lifetime
- 3StarMaster54% won of 944 · whale$47+$98K lifetime
- 4hfv42% won of 44,721$45−$142K lifetime
- 52B9S27% won of 14,477 · noise$14+$97K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "US bank failure by December 31, 2026?"?
36 wallets hold a position worth $1.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 36 of them. The largest Yes holder is spacegliderr, with $739 on it, $78K lifetime loss over 224 markets (29% won). The largest No holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $115 on it, $255K lifetime profit over 123,253 markets (40% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US bank failure by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 72¢ and No at 28¢, a 72% implied chance of Yes. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
14% of the money on Yes and 77% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 63 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 60 points. A week ago, No by 12 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.