Who's betting on “Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $26K traded all time
- Held now
- $12K by 100 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 57% 58 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 58% 41 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $26K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
The smart money
57% of the money on Yes and 58% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 6 points.
Who holds it
100 wallets hold a position worth $12K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 99 of them. The largest Yes holder is felbax, with $151 on it, $1.3K lifetime profit over 4 markets (75% won). The largest No holder is 0x4e25…d7a7, with $3.5K on it, $252K lifetime profit over 1,000 markets (59% won).
- Holders
- 59
- Money on it
- $783
- Holders' win rate
- 57%
- Holders
- 41
- Money on it
- $11K
- Holders' win rate
- 72%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$783 on it
- 1felbax75% won of 4$151+$1.3K lifetime
- 2smolbrain0x38% won of 208 · noise$96+$50K lifetime
- 3Vladimirforever69% won of 26$67−$931 lifetime
- 4rockrider777no record yet$60+$0 lifetime
- 50x651b66A90230af37BC6A935151F191668f42C2B9-176012917398883% won of 6$59+$2.5K lifetime
No$11K on it
- 10x4e25…d7a759% won of 1,000 · whale$3.5K+$252K lifetime
- 2cryptoincome91% won of 1,010$2.7K−$18K lifetime
- 3KTKK74% won of 202 · whale$1.4K+$5.4K lifetime
- 4kunsect726% won of 214$705−$27K lifetime
- 5retolo27376% won of 38 · balanced$564+$191 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?"?
100 wallets hold a position worth $12K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 99 of them. The largest Yes holder is felbax, with $151 on it, $1.3K lifetime profit over 4 markets (75% won). The largest No holder is 0x4e25…d7a7, with $3.5K on it, $252K lifetime profit over 1,000 markets (59% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $26K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
57% of the money on Yes and 58% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.