Who's betting on “Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 85% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 13 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $108K traded all time
- Held now
- $17K by 94 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 71% 50 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 85% 44 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $108K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
71% of the money on Yes and 85% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 13 points. A week ago, No by 13 points.
Who holds it
94 wallets hold a position worth $17K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 94 of them. The largest Yes holder is Raskell, with $247 on it, $69K lifetime profit over 403 markets (61% won). The largest No holder is elmcap2, with $8.6K on it, $2.1M lifetime profit over 1,097 markets (86% won).
- Holders
- 50
- Money on it
- $851
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
- Holders
- 44
- Money on it
- $16K
- Holders' win rate
- 76%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$851 on it
- 1Raskell61% won of 403 · whale$247+$69K lifetime
- 2truthteller63% won of 1,095 · whale$201+$147K lifetime
- 3smartpreset73% won of 543$70−$34K lifetime
- 4mewmew164% won of 1,151$53−$16K lifetime
- 5HerrieDavis63% won of 2,687 · whale$42+$325K lifetime
No$16K on it
- 1elmcap286% won of 1,097 · whale$8.6K+$2.1M lifetime
- 2Pog79% won of 338$1.9K−$1.4K lifetime
- 30xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,163 · noise$1.5K+$335K lifetime
- 40xDafd27c48807E5f5A576BD8a3854342C47A65FFb-175812516241386% won of 303 · grinder$1.1K+$7.5K lifetime
- 5StarMaster54% won of 944 · whale$951+$98K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?"?
94 wallets hold a position worth $17K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 94 of them. The largest Yes holder is Raskell, with $247 on it, $69K lifetime profit over 403 markets (61% won). The largest No holder is elmcap2, with $8.6K on it, $2.1M lifetime profit over 1,097 markets (86% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $108K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
71% of the money on Yes and 85% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 13 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 13 points. A week ago, No by 13 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.