Who's betting on “Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?”?
Finance · $236K volume · Ends January 29, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $236K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 29, 2027.
61% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 31 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 32 points. A week ago, No by 32 points.
457 wallets hold a position worth $65K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 457 of them. The largest Yes holder is truthteller, with $42 on it, $131K lifetime profit over 1,055 markets (63% won). The largest No holder is TheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengard, with $18K on it, $476K lifetime profit over 160 markets (91% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $18K on No.
- Smart money share
- 61%
- Holders
- 129
- Money on it
- $162
- Holders' winrate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 92%
- Holders
- 328
- Money on it
- $64K
- Holders' winrate
- 83%
- Snipers
- 1 · $18K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| truthtellerwhale | $42 | +$131K | 63% of 1,055 |
| balthazarwhale | $33 | +$1.2M | 53% of 44,416 |
| fafafafafafafafsadasdq | $17 | -$2.4K | 100% of 2 |
| HolyMoses7whale | $9 | +$166K | 53% of 1,404 |
| cakoy | $5 | -$167 | 60% of 25 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| TheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengardsniper | $18K | +$476K | 91% of 160 |
| 0xB16B00B5whale | $17K | +$51K | 81% of 314 |
| Ahpowhale | $7.0K | +$137K | 90% of 1,114 |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaulwhale | $5.9K | +$1.6M | 60% of 1,014 |
| thoodrwhale | $4.7K | +$91K | 96% of 810 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Fed rate cut by...?
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.1M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
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- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?"?
457 wallets hold a position worth $65K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 457 of them. The largest Yes holder is truthteller, with $42 on it, $131K lifetime profit over 1,055 markets (63% won). The largest No holder is TheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengard, with $18K on it, $476K lifetime profit over 160 markets (91% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $236K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 29, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
61% of the money on Yes and 92% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 31 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 32 points. A week ago, No by 32 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 29, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.