Who's betting on “Will The Black Ball win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?”?
Smart money leans No: 89% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 12 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $25K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.1K by 44 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 77% 19 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 89% 25 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 46¢ and No at 55¢, a 55% implied chance of No. $25K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on March 14, 2027.
The smart money
77% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 13 points.
Who holds it
44 wallets hold a position worth $4.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 44 of them. The largest Yes holder is Sagand, with $777 on it, $21K lifetime profit over 62 markets (77% won). The largest No holder is EsperanzasDESTROYER, with $1.7K on it, $38K lifetime profit over 204 markets (75% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $777 on Yes.
- Holders
- 19
- Money on it
- $2.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 67%
- Snipers
- 1 · $777
- Holders
- 25
- Money on it
- $2.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 71%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$2.1K on it
- 1Sagand77% won of 62 · sniper$777+$21K lifetime
- 2leftisright51% won of 183 · balanced$447+$1.6K lifetime
- 30xe636…0e88100% won of 5$164+$31 lifetime
- 40xd4b7…d64480% won of 10$144+$259 lifetime
- 5Haradwaith50% won of 54,058$134−$377K lifetime
No$2.0K on it
- 1EsperanzasDESTROYER75% won of 204 · balanced$1.7K+$38K lifetime
- 20x7a6a1abd60% won of 5$105−$183 lifetime
- 3xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,247 · noise$72+$255K lifetime
- 4pootytherewardfarmer35% won of 10,703$41−$320K lifetime
- 5cigarettes46% won of 49,227$22−$49K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will The Black Ball win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?"?
44 wallets hold a position worth $4.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 44 of them. The largest Yes holder is Sagand, with $777 on it, $21K lifetime profit over 62 markets (77% won). The largest No holder is EsperanzasDESTROYER, with $1.7K on it, $38K lifetime profit over 204 markets (75% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will The Black Ball win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 46¢ and No at 55¢, a 55% implied chance of No. $25K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on March 14, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
77% of the money on Yes and 89% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 12 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 13 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on March 14, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.