Who's betting on “Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $18K traded all time
- Held now
- $5.3K by 84 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 24% 45 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 28% 39 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $18K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
24% of the money on Yes and 28% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 36 points.
Who holds it
84 wallets hold a position worth $5.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 84 of them. The largest Yes holder is miazagsc, with $153 on it, $82 lifetime loss over 20 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is Moribundus, with $3.1K on it, $3.4K lifetime loss over 130 markets (72% won).
- Holders
- 45
- Money on it
- $423
- Holders' win rate
- 65%
- Holders
- 39
- Money on it
- $4.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 73%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$423 on it
- 1miazagsc50% won of 20$153−$82 lifetime
- 2MasonsConqueredRome86% won of 209$119−$86K lifetime
- 3JonasB67% won of 30 · balanced$45+$95 lifetime
- 4thursdays62% won of 302 · whale$26+$10K lifetime
- 5Bthfdjino record yet$11−$31 lifetime
No$4.9K on it
- 1Moribundus72% won of 130$3.1K−$3.4K lifetime
- 2aviato80% won of 1,340 · whale$921+$201K lifetime
- 3Inchoroi65% won of 286$276−$21K lifetime
- 4daiphoenix100% won of 4$194+$236 lifetime
- 50x46a1…273672% won of 208 · balanced$101+$5.8K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big pop culture markets
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?$67M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22?$2.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?"?
84 wallets hold a position worth $5.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 84 of them. The largest Yes holder is miazagsc, with $153 on it, $82 lifetime loss over 20 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is Moribundus, with $3.1K on it, $3.4K lifetime loss over 130 markets (72% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $18K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
24% of the money on Yes and 28% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, Yes by 36 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.