Who's betting on “Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?”?
$199K volume · Ends December 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 71¢ and No at 30¢, a 71% implied chance of Yes. $199K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
95% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 8 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 8 points. A week ago, Yes by 6 points.
243 wallets hold a position worth $66K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 243 of them. The largest Yes holder is simpleman, with $20K on it, $90K lifetime profit over 1,032 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is forgetfuldory, with $1.3K on it, $21K lifetime profit over 13 markets (46% won).
- Smart money share
- 95%
- Holders
- 160
- Money on it
- $59K
- Holders' winrate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 87%
- Holders
- 83
- Money on it
- $7.2K
- Holders' winrate
- 64%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| simplemanwhale | $20K | +$90K | 53% of 1,032 |
| chunqiuwhale | $7.1K | +$2.1K | 68% of 73 |
| AlexiosVwhale | $5.7K | +$16K | 77% of 456 |
| 0x5b91…2709whale | $4.6K | +$51K | 76% of 1,025 |
| GoldmanSachswhale | $4.3K | +$70K | 51% of 204 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| forgetfuldory | $1.3K | +$21K | 46% of 13 |
| 0xB16B00B5whale | $1.1K | +$51K | 81% of 314 |
| tinman2whale | $1.0K | +$12K | 79% of 382 |
| Champions26noise | $634 | +$28K | 43% of 553 |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedwhale | $543 | +$154K | 56% of 13,103 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
Questions
Who is betting on "Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?"?
243 wallets hold a position worth $66K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 243 of them. The largest Yes holder is simpleman, with $20K on it, $90K lifetime profit over 1,032 markets (53% won). The largest No holder is forgetfuldory, with $1.3K on it, $21K lifetime profit over 13 markets (46% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 71¢ and No at 30¢, a 71% implied chance of Yes. $199K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
95% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 8 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 8 points. A week ago, Yes by 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.