Who's betting on “Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?”?
$527K volume · Ends December 31, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 23¢ and No at 78¢, a 78% implied chance of No. $527K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
56% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 34 points. A week ago, No by 29 points.
264 wallets hold a position worth $96K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 263 of them. The largest Yes holder is Roflan-ludoman, with $5.2K on it, $195K lifetime profit over 1,022 markets (57% won). The largest No holder is TheReturnOfDarthMaul, with $37K on it, $1.6M lifetime profit over 1,014 markets (60% won).
- Smart money share
- 56%
- Holders
- 179
- Money on it
- $32K
- Holders' winrate
- 56%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 91% ▲ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 85
- Money on it
- $64K
- Holders' winrate
- 59%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roflan-ludomanwhale | $5.2K | +$195K | 57% of 1,022 |
| 0x0bC00DcB5e32D4B913a99C5bF274ADBb8eCd0f2a-1783274222768noise | $3.7K | +$8.5K | 59% of 22 |
| drde | $2.2K | -$20K | 29% of 200 |
| resfeber | $2.1K | -$5.0K | 43% of 1,415 |
| art369864 | $1.8K | -$13K | 83% of 23 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| TheReturnOfDarthMaulwhale | $37K | +$1.6M | 60% of 1,014 |
| forgetfuldory | $6.4K | +$21K | 46% of 13 |
| 456ythgbvcadscvbwhale | $3.2K | +$194K | 67% of 1,024 |
| HolyMoses7whale | $3.2K | +$166K | 53% of 1,404 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBillywhale | $2.2K | +$306K | 44% of 3,734 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
Questions
Who is betting on "Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?"?
264 wallets hold a position worth $96K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 263 of them. The largest Yes holder is Roflan-ludoman, with $5.2K on it, $195K lifetime profit over 1,022 markets (57% won). The largest No holder is TheReturnOfDarthMaul, with $37K on it, $1.6M lifetime profit over 1,014 markets (60% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 23¢ and No at 78¢, a 78% implied chance of No. $527K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
56% of the money on Yes and 91% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 34 points. A week ago, No by 29 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.