- One market per term. An event (“What will Trump say at the rally?”) lists many words or phrases; each is its own Yes/No market.
- The exact term counts, in any context. Plurals and possessives count (“tariffs”, “China's”); other forms usually do not (“tariffed”). A term inside a compound word counts.
- Some terms need a count. “China 5+ times” resolves Yes only if it is said at least five times.
- Only the named event counts. Remarks before or after it, or at another event, do not. A Q&A that is part of the event usually does.
- Cancelled or not aired resolves No, by the deadline in the rules.
- The source is the video or transcript named in each market's rules. Always read them: wording differs between events.
History on this page is the share of past events with the same speaker (and the same kind of event: a single appearance, a week of remarks, or posts) where the term was said. With fewer than 3 past events it is shown faded: too thin to read much into.