- Confidence
- 84
- If it wins
- $100 → $177
- Edge after costs
- +3.9 pts
Past calls this size (270): model said +5.5 pts, came true +8.7 pts
Open markets where Polkyo's model puts a side's fair value above what it costs to buy it now, after the spread, Polymarket's fee and slippage. Ranked by that upside, weighed by how sure the model is. Real edges are small: a few percent is a strong one, and 10% or more is rare.
No market is sure to rise. Upside is what a side is worth at the model's probability, a long-run average over many bets like it. Any single one can lose everything you put in. Below each pick: how bets with an edge that size have done.
Past calls this size (270): model said +5.5 pts, came true +8.7 pts
Past calls this size (270): model said +5.5 pts, came true +8.7 pts
Past calls this size (2,056): model said +3.9 pts, came true +2.2 pts
From the same model as the AI Edge Scanner, at a $100 stake. Fair value is the model's probability that the side wins; the cost is what $100 buys it for on the live order book, fee included. Prices move in minutes. Not financial advice.